CCMC CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2025-07-09T17:30:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2025-07-09T17:30ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/39999/-1
CME Note: CME first seen to the NW in GOES CCOR-1 starting around 2025-07-09T17:30Z. CME is also seen to the N in STEREO A COR2. CME is covered by a data gap in SOHO LASCO C2/C3. A possible source for this CME is an eruption to the SW of AR 14137 beginning around 2025-07-09T15:30Z. Some faint ejecta can be seen leaving the disk in SDO AIA 304. If this candidate is the source of the CME, there is some significant deflection to the NW.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2025-07-12T20:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 4.0 - 6.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
Prediction Method Note:
https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/40003/1 Model Inputs: 2025-07-09T17:30:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=41.0, Lat.=33.0, Speed=277.0, HalfAngle=28.0, Time21.5=2025-07-10T04:20Z Model Output: Earth Impact: Earth Shock Arrival Time = 2025-07-12T20:00Z (+- 7 hours) (kp)90=4 (kp)180=6 Other Location(s) Impact: OSIRIS-APEX with esitmated shock arrival time 2025-07-12T12:00Z Parker Solar Probe with esitmated shock arrival time 2025-07-11T20:00Z STEREO A with esitmated shock arrival time 2025-07-13T02:00Z Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250710_042000_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250710_042000_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250710_042000_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250710_042000_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250710_042000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250710_042000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250710_042000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250710_042000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250710_042000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250710_042000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250710_042000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250710_042000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250710_042000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Juice_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250710_042000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250710_042000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gifLead Time: 66.18 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Elizabeth Juelfs (LASSOS) on 2025-07-10T01:49Z
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